资本流动的突然中止论文：资本流入的突然中止对中国经济的影响
　　
　　【中文摘要】随着发展中国家的崛起,国际资本开始大规模涌入新兴市场经济体。然而,资本给一国经济带来增长的同时,由于种种原因,也带来了不稳定因素,更有甚者会引发经济危机,给国家带来严重损失。1990年以来,世界范围内爆发了一系列危机,如1994年墨西哥危机,1997年始于泰国的亚洲危机和1999年的巴西危机,而这些都是由资本流入的突然中止引发的。资本流动与宏观经济的稳定是我国走向资本账户开放过程中必然要面对的现实问题,我国已经对资本流动高度重视起来,但现在的关注重点还是热钱的流入,很少有考虑到资本流入的突然中止。事实上,近期国际上由资本流入的突然中止所导致的危机众多,足以引起我们的重视,但目前国内还未对SS现象展开系统的研究。本文的就是通过对国外文献进行梳理,总结SS发生的条件及对经济造成的影响,同时结合中国实际数据构造VAR模型进行分析,考虑如果中国发生了资本流入的突然中止,会产生何种后果,希望能够引起学者对研究资本流入的突然中止这一现象的重视。文章的第五部分,通过构造包含GDP、投资、消费、净出口和经常项目差额在内的VAR模型,并对其进行脉冲响应分析,得出资本流动的突然中止带来的经常项目差额突然逆转,会使得GDP、投资、消费均有不同幅度的下降,再进行方差分解可以得出各变量间的相互影响程度以及每个变量的波动带给其他变量的影响,从而验证了资本流入的突然中止是可以通过投资传导到GDP,进而造成经济衰退的。对于中国而言,当前尚未面临"三元悖论"的原因是政府仍在实行资本管制。但从长远来看,实现资本市场自由化已是大势所趋,政府的选择无非是以下两个,维持汇率稳定但要放弃货币的独立性,或是放弃汇率稳定而坚持货币独立。对于中国,是不会允许丧失货币独立性的,因而只有放弃汇率稳定选择浮动汇率。鉴于我国目前经济形势还比较复杂,完全实现汇率浮动仍需要较长的时间。但在当前人民币升值压力越来越大、步伐越来越快的情况下,应积极参与区域货币的合作,以缓解外部冲击的不利影响。
　　【英文摘要】With the rise of developing countries, international capital began to inflow into emerging market economies. On the one hand, capital helps a country to stimulate economic growth, on the other hand, due to various reasons it also brings instability to the country, or even worse, lead the economic go to collapse. Since the 1990s, there are a series of crises caused by the sudden stop of capital inflows, such as the Mexican crisis of 1994, the Asian crisis of 1997 which began in Thailand and the Brazilian crisis in 1999.The balance between capital flows and macroeconomic stability is very important, that the whole China's capital account opening process must be deal with it very well. However, China has attached great importance on capital flows, but now still focus on the hot money inflows rather than the sudden stop of capital inflows. As the domestic have not yet conducted a systematic study about sudden stops, the purpose of this paper is to introduce this phenomenon, and through the foreign literature I'll summarize what the sudden stops condition is and how the sudden stops impact on the economy. Furthermore, combined with China's actual structural VAR model to analyze the data, considering if the sudden stop of capital inflow occurred in China, what the consequences would be. I hope this paper attract more scholars to research the sudden stops of capital inflow.For China, the policy of capital controls remain, which makes the monetary authorities have not officially facing the "The Impossible Trinity". But in the long run, giving up capital controls and turning to the free capital movement is the most possibility trend. Because in this situation what the government can do, or is the choice of exchange rate stability and to give up monetary independence, or to abandon the currency exchange rate stability and uphold the independence. For China, there is no possibility to rely on any other country, and therefore a floating exchange rate has become the inevitable choice. However, due to the many factors including that the current structure of China's export products which is very single and the investment from private sector is not active, achieving the goal that free-floating exchange rate still need to take a long time. However, in recent years there is pressure on the RMB appreciate, floating exchange rate should be fluctuated within a large range, and RMB should actively participate in regional monetary cooperation to alleviate the adverse effects of external shocks.

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